
This is where I save interesting links.
-
Always beware a declining superpower
Good post from Janan Ganesh at the Financial Times on how superpowers take decline (not well) and how the U.S. decline can’t really compared to Britain or France’s power decline after WW2 because that transfer was from West to West and demographically pretty similar, while this one would not be.

He also says we’ve been declining for some time now.
https://www.ft.com/content/014e85ce-b703-4ed8-8183-e6e5d1061974
-
More Lawfare
“Lawfare is the hallmark of a failing state because it erodes not just political independence, but the capacity for independent judgment.”
Probably not good.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/01/chairman-powells-statement.html#comments
-
U.S. interventions in the New World, with leader removal
The Venezuala thing is a great Bayesian opportunity:
Have a prior, update as it develops.
The prior would be, Yeah seems like this never works. Though, in Tyler’s recounting above, there are some counterfactuals to that common expression/belief. I couldn’t coherently speak through them, but nonetheless.
I’m of two minds on this as it stands, 1 day in:
- Generally, it seems like we shouldn’t be trying exploits like this
- It should be judged on its own terms, not “it’s never worked so it won’t work this time”
On point 1), the counter to that might be: We ousted (kidnapped?) Maduro within his own country and home in 2.5 hours with what seems like few casualties. Could counter-intelligence measures have accomplished this if we’d chosen non-military intervention? So if it’s viewed through a utilitarian lens as opposed to isolated to the present combined with the past, time will tell.
Probably should view through both the utilitarian-lens and the present-moment-lens.
-
A meme to make sense of things
Watched this and immediately understood it. That COVID “ended” is sort of a misdirection. Or, it’s not the full expression of what we mean by COVID. Not for me anyways.
“everything changed” – yeah, it did
-
How the Phone Ban Saved High School
It’s probably common knowledge at this point that a lot of the youth’s troubles come from The Phones. As much as Marc Andreessen and others say it can’t be, look at the charts, it’s at least got something to do with it.
I read this short article – with quite a strange and abrupt ending by the way! – on kids discovering (probably not even re-discovering) how to waste time with each other.
It gave me a familiar feeling of my high school experience which I think was one of the last years (2011) before the The Phones took over.
Probably will see more of this. We did this at Rockmont when I was a director there and it was very clearly a good thing for college students.
-
K-12 Education Spending
There is very little more essential to a free society than universal literacy and adequate public education. It is a civil rights issue. It is the foundation for absolutely everything else.
To fail here is to lastingly abandon a significant fraction of our children to a lifelong struggle.
Quote is from The Argument’s post in September on the Mississippi Miracle.
Following thoughts are from: https://reason.org/k12-ed-spending/2025-spotlight/
- The funding metric they focus on is $/student spent
- That’s been going up sharply from their measured years: 2002 – 2023
- Funding is increasingly going towards teacher benefits, not salary: “for every new $1 that public schools spent on employee salaries between 2002 and 2023, benefit expenditures rose by $3.27.”
- The benefit expenditure is largely going towards paying teacher pension commitments that have been underfunded
- “bulk of new K-12 hires were non-teachers, which increased by 22.8%, such as counselors, social workers, speech pathologists, and instructional aides”
- number of teachers rose 7.6% during from 2002-2023
- they make a note that the most well-funded states have lost a lot of students (e.g. CA -318,532 since 2020) but had added more non-teaching staff members (e.g. CA 3,400) at the same time
- doesn’t immediately make me think it’s some sin to hire more staff, even non-teachers, even while losing students, because the education environment is so complex and changing (much different than when I was in high school (2008-2011)) that this may be a necessary inconvenience to combat dynamic issues
- meaning, if you look at this as a whole, spending more money for the administrative state, while losing students, doesn’t sound good. but, what, and who, it takes to serve a population of students with challenges like The Phones, anxiety, low-belief in a good future, etc. may be necessary
- The brain drain in Vermont & New Hampshire’s public schools…?
- Vermont growth rate from 2002-2023: -17.3%, and from 2020-2023: -3.6%
- New Hampshire growth rate from 2002-2023: -18.3%, and from 2020-2023: -4.8%
- Real salaries are declining: average fell from $75,151 in 2002 to $70,548 in 2022
- Most of that % drop happened during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Declined most in NC!! -9.6%
- Over this same period, while teacher salaries didn’t rise, “public school revenue grew by 25%”
- They cite a theory on why salaries didn’t grow, but say it’s unconfirmed:
- “Because teacher pay is tied to years of experience and educational attainment—and teacher salaries vary substantially by state—it’s also possible that demographic shifts in the teacher population contributed to the observed trends. However, available federal data make it difficult to draw firm conclusions. While the share of teachers with over 20 years of experience has declined, educational attainment has increased, with the proportion of teachers holding only a bachelor’s degree falling over time.”
- Inflation probably also ate up teacher salaries
- Their conclusion: strong headwinds, use funding wisely to face them
My basic takeaway is:
Funding is pretty much up across the board. Revenue is up (don’t know what generates revenue). Enrollment is down. Staff growth is majority in non-teacher roles. I’m interested in how necessary that is based on the current slate of challenges young people face. It’s not obvious to me that more funding = bad or that less funding = better educational results. But, it seems important that a growing % of the funding should go towards higher real teacher pay and better educational results. My guess is talent is probably one of the primary things that would solve this: smart, kind, and effective people running these schools and districts.
This all relates to the Mississippi Miracle. Mississippi’s in the top 20 of $/student spent, though much lower overall to the top 5 spenders, but they’re also seeing strong educational results specifically in reading.
The post I read on the Mississippi Miracle says the three things that worked, and worked in Louisiana and Tennessee and a few other southern states too, were:
- teach phonics, instead of the whole language method (looking at sentence context and then guessing at the word).
- require elementary school teachers be trained on the science of reading. lots of continuing training for teacher goes to waste (according to the post) but this ensures it’s worth it.
- accountability: “clear accountability at the district level, at the school level, at the educator level, and at the student and parent level”
- “In Mississippi, a child who isn’t capable of reading at the end of third grade has to repeat the grade — a policy called third grade retention.”
Probably hard to know how much of the Mississippi Miracle in reading is related to their amount of funding, and how much it’s gone up, but the folks recounting the success don’t just say: money did it.
-
On reading
Found this interesting. I don’t check as many books out from the library because they feel impermanent that way.
-
World War AI
-
How to Understand Things
An essay from pandemic times. Which has some uncomfortable realities in it. Mainly, good thinking requires more focus, more curiosity, less concern about what others think, and so on.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-111014900
People who have not experienced the thing are unlikely to be generating truth. More likely, they’re resurfacing cached thoughts and narratives. Reading popular science books or news articles is not a substitute for understanding, and may make you stupider, by filling your mind with narratives and stories that don’t represent your own synthesis.
-
Confidently Wrong
Uh oh. This spells trouble for the staunchly, and always, anti-expert crowd. Most of them are on Twitter and host podcasts (of which I listen to).
Most importantly on this issue:
The authors suggest leaning on social norms and respected community figures instead.