The Venezuala thing is a great Bayesian opportunity:
Have a prior, update as it develops.
The prior would be, Yeah seems like this never works. Though, in Tyler’s recounting above, there are some counterfactuals to that common expression/belief. I couldn’t coherently speak through them, but nonetheless.
I’m of two minds on this as it stands, 1 day in:
- Generally, it seems like we shouldn’t be trying exploits like this
- It should be judged on its own terms, not “it’s never worked so it won’t work this time”
On point 1), the counter to that might be: We ousted (kidnapped?) Maduro within his own country and home in 2.5 hours with what seems like few casualties. Could counter-intelligence measures have accomplished this if we’d chosen non-military intervention? So if it’s viewed through a utilitarian lens as opposed to isolated to the present combined with the past, time will tell.
Probably should view through both the utilitarian-lens and the present-moment-lens.