Back in the days of yore, if you did not manage to get a job at Google in 2005 you could still buy its stock. You had at least the option of gaining from its appreciation assuming you thought it inevitable. Over the last decade and a half there have been multiple generations who succeeded from getting a job at one of these giants and working their way up, and equally and more from people who invested in those giants. That’s what brought about the belief that the arc of history trended upwards.
Today, there exists no such option. There only exists short term manic rises even for the longer term theses.
And:
The claim is not that returns vanished, but that access to the tails shifted.
Full post here on Substack by Rohit Vishnan with a great subtitle, “the vibes they are a-changin”.